Men's Basketball Preseason Top 25

Midnight Madness has come and gone and we move closer and closer to one of my favorite times of the year, college basketball season!! With that in mind I put together my Top 25 headed into the season.

1) Louisville-  I've always been a proponent of if you win the national title the previous season then you should get the respect of being ranked as the number 1 team heading into the next year. Preseason rankings are extremely subjective because we haven't yet seen any of these teams in full game action so why not put the defending champs at one? There's plenty to like about this team, Russ Smith returns after flirting with the NBA Draft for his senior season.  The Cardinals also return deadeye shooter Luke Hancock, Wayne Blackshear and Kevin Ware after his horrific leg injury in the NCAA tournament.  Montrezl Harrell is the young guy to watch on this team, very explosive on the wing.  Biggest problem is Chane Behanan was just suspended indefinitely from the team so Coach Pitino will have to find some production in the front-court to replace him and Gorgui Dieng.

2) Michigan State- Tom Izzo's squad is always tough year after year, but with the amount of returning depth this team has, they deserve to be ranked this high. The Spartans return 7 of their top 8 scorers from last season including Big Ten Freshman of the Year Gary Harris, who is primed for an explosive sophomore campaign.  In the backcourt with Harris is the steady vet Keith Appling who led MSU in scoring last season.  Down low 6'10" 245 lb senior Adreian Payne patrols the paint and he is a force to be reckoned with averaging nearly a double double last season. 

3) Kentucky- The Coaches Poll has the Wildcats in the No. 1 spot and it's hard to argue considering the amount of top talent on this team.  However, as we saw last season, young talent and potential doesn't necessarily always translate to wins.  Still there's a lot to like about these Baby Cats, with the Harrison twins in the back-court, a James Young/Alex Poythress combo on the wing, and man-child Julius Randle and Willie Cauley-Stein in the front-court.  If those guys play to their potential, this team will make a run like the Demarcus Cousins team from a few years ago. If not, then a repeat of last season is in order.

4) Duke- The "second best" freshman in the nation Jabari Parker is absolutely for real.  This kid can dominate inside and out and will more than likely be a one and done.  Despite that, I think Duke fans will love him while they have him as he meshes onto a team that lost some veteran leadership last year but gained a ton of athleticism.  Never argue against Coach K

5) Kansas- Well, the Jayhawks have this kid named Andrew Wiggins, maybe you've heard of him? He's only been called "The Next Lebron" and had discussions about a $300+ million dollar sneaker deal. Aside from the hype around the freshman, Bill Self has a very solid squad with two other fab freshman, Wayne Selden and Joel Embiid expected to make an impact as well.  This team has much the same outlook as Kentucky, a ton of potential that if it is realized they will go far.

6) Syracuse- The Orange return CJ Fair as the focal point of the team but also surround him with Jerami Grant and forgotten man Rakeem Christmas in the front-court.  The problem for this team will be in the back-court where they will have to get high level production right away from freshmen Tyler Ennis along with red-shirt sophomore Trevor Cooney.

7) Florida- This team returns three senior leaders in Scottie Wilbekin, Patric Young, and Will Yeguete all of whom will have to take big steps forward offensively after the Gators lost their top 4 scorers. There's only one freshman on this roster though so the depth and experience of this team could provide some problems for younger squads.

8) Arizona- Arizona returns Nick Johnson from last year's team who was the 3rd leading scorer, as well as Jordin Mayes and Kaleb Tarczewski.  There's also superstar freshman Aaron Gordon who's making a lot of Wildcat fans giddy to see how he performs this year. Sean Miller should be able to get the most out of his young team and Arizona will be a team to watch come March.

9) Ohio State- Thad Matta brings back a ton of experience while only losing Deshaun Thomas.  I say only a little bit facetiously as Thomas was Mr. Everything for much of last season for the Buckeyes.  However, scrappy point guard Aaron Craft is back for his senior year alongside Lenzelle Smith Jr and Laquinton Ross who both came on strong towards the end of last season.  The Big Ten is always a battle which is why these teams tend to make deep runs in March and it will be another dogfight at the top between MSU, Ohio State and the number 10 team on my list....

10) Michigan- After a tough loss in the National Championship the Wolverines lost National Player of the Year Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. to the NBA.  As big as those losses seem, the rest of the new "Fab Five" is still intact with Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary all coming back for their sophomore campaigns.  Stauskas should have a bigger role offensively with Burke and Hardaway gone and if McGary can keep up his double double average from the tournament the Wolverines will be just fine.

11) Oklahoma State- I badly wanted to rank the Cowboys higher with Marcus Smart, arguably the best player in the nation and yes that includes the two "Next LeBron's", but outside of Smart and back-court mate Markel Brown, there are question marks.  For instance can the front-court trio of Michael Cobbins, Gary Gaskins and Mason Cox provide some offensive support? Will Le'Bryan Nash finally fulfill his potential? The teams ahead of OK State right now have questions as well and I think the Cowboys will rise up the ranks this year, but for now we'll leave them here. By the way, I couldn't be more excited about the Kansas games especially after Marcus Smart called out Wiggins.

12) Memphis- Josh Pastner's team is LOADED in the back-court.  Joe Jackson, Geron Johnson and Chris Crawford (3 of the team's top 4 scorers) return for their senior years. That alone should be good enough to allow them to make a lot of noise and possibly (note possibly) challenge Louisville in the Big E...I mean American Athletic Conference.  Shaq Goodwin provides some punch down low but that other front court spot if the Tigers use a three guard line-up is still up for grabs.

13) Gonzaga- The Zags are now a perennial top 25 team and this year is no exception.  Point Guard Kevin Pangos is back along with Gary Bell Jr at the guard spots.  To replace Kelly Olynyk the Bulldogs have both Sam Dower and 7-footer Prsemek Karnowski.  Both will have to steadily improve to replace Olynyk's production so that will be a storyline to watch with this team but for now, they're in the 13 spot.

14) VCU- The Rams bring back Juvonte Reddic, Treveon Graham, and Briante Weber all long-armed monsters who make the Havoc defense coach Smart employs a nightmare for teams. This team looks geared up for another NCAA berth barring injuries to their top guys.

15) North Carolina- I'm not high on this Tar Heels team.  James McAdoo is back along with Marcus Paige who proved himself capable of handling the point at the end of the season.  But, PJ Hairston is facing suspension and there's no time-frame for when he'll be back yet and with Reggie Bullock having left a year early, this team may struggle to start the year again.  Roy Williams is a fantastic coach and will get the most he can out of this group though so they'll stick around and provide some tough competition.

16) Wichita State- The Shockers are a veteran team that plays a rugged style of basketball and is just removed from a Final Four run.  Yes they lost Carl Hall and Malcolm Armstead but Cleanthony Early is a possible All-America candidate and Tekele Cotton, Ron Baker and NCAA Tourney surprise Fred VanVleet are all back.  Count on Wichita State sticking around the Top 25 this year.

17) UConn- This is Kevin Ollie's program now and why shouldn't it be after he lead them to a 20 win season despite the fact that they couldn't make the postseason.  All of their top 4 scorers are back and if DeAndre Daniels plays like he did down the stretch of last year this team will make a huge leap forward.

18) Oregon- With stellar sophomore point guard Dominic Artis fully healthy and a ton of upperclassmen the Ducks are again poised to be a threat in the Pac-12.  Add in Mike Moser who's been a journeyman in his college career but still has plenty of talent and you have a deep team with the potential to give anyone a run on any given night.

19) Marquette- Vander Blue and Junior Cadougan are gone but interior force Davante Gardner and Jamil Wilson are both back.  Add to that mix highly regarded freshman Deonte Burton and you have a Marquette team that will again be a contender in the now new look Big East.

20) New Mexico- Kendall Williams and Alex Kirk are a combination that makes the Lobos dangerous to any team.  They're picked first in the Mountain West polls because of these two but they will need to prove they are the top dog in what has been recently a very good mid-major conference.

21) Wisconsin- Ben Brust, Traeveon Jackson and Sam Dekker all return to give Bo Ryan another Badgers team that will make you earn every point and keep the score in the high 60's low 70's.  Another bruising team in the Big Ten. 

22) UCLA- Ben Howland's team brings back to great sophomores in Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson along with red-shirt senior Larry Wear for a good foundation.  The big question comes at point guard where the Bruins lose Larry Drew to graduation. 

23) Virginia- The Coaches have Indiana and Notre Dame ahead of the Cavaliers and to me that feels like respect for two big programs rather than a look at the team.  I like Virginia here because they return Joe Harris one of the best unknown guards in the nation.  Add him to Akil Mitchell and Mike Tobey and you have a good trio of leaders for this team in what's going to be a ridiculously tough ACC.

24) Indiana- This Hoosiers squad looks a lot different from the one that spent a lot of time at number one last year but they crack my top 25 because of projected NBA lottery pick Noah Vonleh who brings a big presence in the front-court.

25) Notre Dame- I'm not that high on the Irish either but they do return Jerian Grant who caught fire at the end of last year along with Eric Atkins who actually trailed off a little bit.  The Irish are still in a tough conference but they'll have plenty of time to gel with a very easy early season schedule before showdowns with Indiana and Ohio State in December.

HR Derby Curse: Fact or Fiction?

Watching Yoenis Cespedes and Bryce Harper duel during the home-run derby last night on ESPN got me thinking.  Is the fabled HR Derby Curse a reality or something that gets blown out of proportion when a fan base is trying to explain a slumping slugger? For those of you unsure of what the HR Derby Curse is:  Commentators and media members speculate that participating in the home-run derby screws up the timing and mechanics of a player's swing and forces them to have a bad second half of the season.  So with the help of baseball-reference.com I decided to look at the winners and runners-up in the derby for each of the last 20 years (1992-2012) to see if there was any truth to this theory. That's a sample size of 40 of the players that have been in the contest.  Also you'd think the theory would manifest itself more in the players that are in the competition for the most amount of time during that night. Here's my findings.

In the past twenty years there have been 11 players that were either 1st or 2nd place in the Derby that had single digit home-runs in the second half of that season.  Those players are: Jose Bautista (2012), Hanley Ramirez (2010), Justin Morneau (2008), Alex Rios (2007), David Wright (2006), Bobby Abreu (2005), Ivan Rodriguez (2005), Garret Anderson (2003), Jeromy Burnitz (1999), Jim Thome (1998), Ken Griffey Jr. (1994).  That means that 27.5% of the players in the top 2 the last twenty years have dropped off in the power category in the 2nd half.  Seems like pretty convincing evidence right? Well hang on a minute.

In that same time frame 9 players have equaled or outperformed their HR numbers from the first half of the
season.  Prince Fielder ('12, '09), Ryan Howard (2006), Miguel Tejada (2004), Sammy Sosa ('01, '00), Albert Belle (1995), Juan Gonzalez (1993), Ken Griffey Jr. (1993).  So 22.5% of those 40 players outperformed or equaled their numbers.  This theory is starting to spring some holes.

You may say okay Ryan, but there's still more players that have had bad second halves than good ones.  Okay you are correct, but let's look a little further.  Four of those under-performing players got injured in the second half and played 50 games or fewer. (Bautista, Burnitz, Thome, and The Kid).  So let's ignore their second half power outages.  Furthermore, Ivan Rodriguez entered the All-Star Break in 2005 with 6 HR in 74 games and then hit 8 HR in 55 games in the second half.  So he probably shouldn't be counted in the theory either.  There's five of the eleven players removed.

Now for the tough cases, (Ramirez, Morneau, Rios, Wright, Abreu, Anderson).  Ramirez played 56 games in the second half of 2010 hitting .300 with 8 HR just one point below his first half batting average (.301).  Justin Morneau (2008) hit 9 HR in 68 games (13.2% HR/Game Rate) versus only 14 HR in 95 games (14.7% HR/GM). Alex Rios after hitting 17 homers in the 1st half hit just 7 after the break, but his batting average rose 16 points from .284 to .300.

David Wright's 2006 season is probably the second most pointed to example of this theory so let's take a look at that. Wright hit .316 with 20 dingers in 87 games before All-Star Week and .305 with 6 homers in 67 games in the second half.  This case seems to hold water.  Although looking at Wright's splits from that it doesn't look like as big of a slump.

We're going to skip Abreu (don't worry I'll get there, it pains me as a Phillies fan) and go to Garret Anderson.  Anderson hit 22 round trippers in 92 games with a .316 BA and after the derby hit 7 HR in 67 games with a .313 BA. That seems like a power outage but consider that the 29 total home-runs that year was tied for the second highest total of his career.

And now for in my opinion the reason this theory exists.  Bobby Abreu.  Now Bobby got a bad wrap at times in Philly for perceived lackadaisical play, but in reality he was a solid player on some horrible teams with the franchise.  This 2005 year however, well Bobby, I can't and don't want to defend you. He was on a tear in the first half (89 GP .307 BA 18 HR) but then he went out and hit 24 homers in one round of the derby and 41 overall (still the highest total in derby history so I guess there's that going for him).  In the second half of the year he was atrocious:  73 GP .260 BA 6 HR.  I have no defense. For those that believe in the curse this should be exhibit A.  His batting average dropped 47 points, he hit one third of the homers he did in the 1st half and overall looked lost at the plate.  (Side stat: Number of times Ryan screamed at the tv during his at-bats down the stretch- 400,857,302.)

After looking at all of the stats and the breakdown, it seems like there are only two real cases for this curse in the 1st and 2nd place finishers in the past 20 years.  And one (Wright 2006) is debatable.  So for all of you A's fans out there (quietest fan base in the country?) don't worry about Yoenis.  Same for you zombie-Expos...I mean Nationals fans.  Your boys should be just fine this year and if not, well just re-watch this you'll feel better. (Spanish version was best I could find)