NFL Week 7 Picks

Missed last week folks I apologize for that.  Did my picks still on the daily talk show I do but forgot to post them.  It wasn't a great week at 7-6-1 but the Week 5 picks I was on FIRE!!! 11-3.  18-9-1 the past two weeks, get 'em while they're hot! The picks are in bold:

New York Jets @ New England- This game I thought would be a blowout.  I was wrong in that regard as the Jets offense was able to move the football pretty well and Geno Smith showed what kind of Quarterback he could possibly be.  But it wasn't enough.  They lose on a blocked FG.  THE most Jets way to lose a football game.

·      New Orleans @ Detroit- The Saints are without Jimmy Graham this weekend and the Lions pass rush looks to be legit.  I expect them to hurry Drew Brees and be able to keep this game low scoring.  The key will be how Matt Stafford and Joe Lombardi attack a Saints D that has been one of the league’s worst giving up 379 plus yards per game. They’re also allowing their opponents to score 28 points per game. 

·      Carolina @ Green Bay- Cam Newton has been scary the last few weeks.  Completing 58% of his passes for 736 yards 5 TD 1 INT and last week 17 car  for 107 yards and 1 TD.  The problem? A shaken up Kelvin Benjamin and below average receiving core against a good Packers secondary.  Plus Aaron Rodgers must be licking his chops to go against that Panthers D. 

·      Atlanta @ Baltimore- I thought Atlanta was going to be better than they are and the main reason they’re not is the two concerns heading into the season. Offensive line and defense.  Baltimore is built to exploit both. 

·      Tennessee @ Washington- The Washington football team actually gave the Seahawks a game their last time out.  They’re at home against an iffy Tennessee team.  They’ve got to pick up a win here right?.....Hello? Anyone?

·      Seattle @ St. Louis- The Seahawks have been knocked from their perch atop the league over the first six weeks with two losses on their resume.  Doesn’t mean that St. Louis will continue that trend.  Austin Davis has played well but expect that Seattle defense to be MAD this week after people have been trashing them because of the loss to Dallas.

·      Cleveland @ Jacksonville- The winless watch has begun for the Jaguars and they will be facing a Browns team that is the surprise of the league through the first 6 weeks. Jacksonville drops to 0-7.

·      Cincy @ Indy- The Bengals defense is actually worrying me now.  The past two weeks allowing 45 and 37 respectively.  They’ve faced good offenses for sure in the Pats and Panthers but it’s not getting any easier this week going up against Andrew Luck.  Luck wins.

·      Minnesota at Buffalo- The Vikings defense has shown at times flashes of what Mike Zimmer can do with any kind of visible talent.  I also like Matt Asiata and Jerrick Mckinnon out of the backfield and Teddy hasn’t made too many rookie mistakes. Buffalo I don’t trust and Kyle Orton I don’t trust.  

·      Miami @ Chicago- The Dolphins were the “surprise” team expected to contend with the Pats this year for the AFC East. Oops.  The Bears offense will do just fine against a defense that has been underwhelming. 

·      Kansas City @ San Diego- I’m all in on Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense. The Chiefs are starting to see the issues of having not much in the way of weapons outside of Jamal Charles.

·      Arizona @ Oakland- The Cardinals defense will shut down a mediocre Raiders offense.  Bruce Arians continues to be a magician on the offensive side of the football.

·      New York Giants @ Dallas- The Giants looked worse than awful if that’s even possible last week against Philly in being shutout.  Does Dallas have the same kind of pass rush? No. Do they have a better running game than Philly? Yeah.  The Giants were gashed by the Eagles last week and will be again this week.

·      San Francisco @ Denver- The Niners had issues with Austin Davis getting the ball out quickly on Monday night. Now they go against the master of getting the ball out quickly. With a short week to prepare and in the altitude that presents a major disadvantage for the Niners.

·      Houston @ Pittsburgh- I don’t know how much more JJ Watt can do to help his team win. Luckily for him he’s playing the Steelers who are struggling mightily this season.  Give me the Texans on the road. 

   This Week: 1-0

   Last Week: 7-6-1

   Season: 43-31-1

NFL Week 5 Picks

Rough week last week but we're still over .500 on the season and we'll see if we can get hot again this week.  To the picks!

Minnesota @ Green Bay
Gave this out on the show yesterday and I'm not surprised.  Minnesota starting Christian Ponder on a short week and it showed. We're 1-0 to start this week.
Winner: Green Bay

St. Louis @ Philadelphia
The Eagles offensive line is atrocious and sorely missing Jason Kelce and Evan Mathis. They won't get those guys back until later but they do return Lane Johnson to the line-up so now at least 3/5 of the starters will be together. They'll need it against a terrific St. Louis front 4.
Winner: Philadelphia

Buffalo @ Detroit
Jim Schwartz's defense comes to town to try and stop a Lions offense that's getting more unbalanced by the week with so many running backs injured. Kyle Orton gets the start at QB. This smells and feels like a trap game.  I think the Lions win, but it will be closer than their fans want it to be.
Winner: Detroit

Chicago @ Carolina
The Panthers have shown some holes after starting 2-0, and the Bears are coming off a bad Jay game.  That usually means a rebound week for Cutler and I think the Bears take this one.
Winner: Chicago

Cleveland @ Tennessee
Woof.  This is a coin flip game for me.  Jake Locker hasn't improved this season so far and Cleveland is a couple of plays away from being 3-0.
Winner: Cleveland

Atlanta @ New York Giants
It seems as if the Giants are starting to figure out this offense and they finally get Odell Beckham Jr added to the line-up after the world's longest hamstring injury.  Atlanta's line is in trouble I'm taking the Giants
Winner: New York Giants

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
The mystique and mythology surrounding Rob Ryan as a D-coordinator is wearing off. He has plenty of talent on this D yet they've been awful.  But they're at home.  It seems like they always find a way to win in the Superdome.
Winner: New Orleans

Houston @ Dallas
After looking awful Week 1, Dallas has ripped off three straight and I have to tip my cap. I knew the O-line would be good but I wasn't sure if Jason Garrett would actually commit to the run.  He has and the Cowboys have benefitted. I like Houston and they're definitely a better team than they were last year but I'll take the 'Boys at home.
Winner: Dallas

Baltimore @ Indy
The Ravens are better than I thought and Justin Forsett along with Lorenzo Taliaferro have made everyone forget about a certain #27 with their production on the ground. But Andrew Luck and this offense has been on fire and I expect them to continue to put it in Luck's hands. Some magic from him wins this game.
Winner: Indy

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville
Blake Bortles had a solid first start but he's behind and awful offensive line that makes every pass rush look like Pro Bowlers. The Steelers need this win after a tough loss against Tampa last week.
Winner: Pittsburgh

Arizona @ Denver
The Cardinals are the darling of many NFL people right now, their secondary is legit.  But they're in Mile High for this one, and Denver's defense actually may win them this game by confusing or unsettling Drew Stanton.
Winner: Denver

Kansas City @ San Francisco
Both teams are coming off needed victories.  Both teams have shown defensively that they can shut down their opponents.  I think this one comes down to QB's and if Kaepernick takes care of the ball, the Niners win.
Winner: Niners

New York Jets @ San Diego
The Jets will give up on Geno Smith.  And that's the wrong move. Mike Vick is not the answer. Phillip Rivers will test that Jets secondary that got shredded by Matt Stafford last week.
Winner: San Diego

Cincinnati @ New England
This is the trendy upset pick because this always seems to be the type of game New England wins.  Everybody counting them out leaving them for dead.  I understand why people are picking New England.  I think they're defense is better than they showed on Monday night. But I can't see help for the offense. Julian Edelman is the #1 receiver. They can't get separation and Cincy's corners are up there among the best.
Winner: Cincy

Seattle @ Washington
This won't be a blowout.  Seattle isn't great on the road, and Washington isn't as bad as they showed last Thursday.  But the Seahawks still win.
Winner: Seattle

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 6-7
Season: 25-22 

Week 4 NFL Picks

We're at the quarter pole of the season and starting to learn what to expect from most teams.  I had a good week last week let's see if we can keep the good mojo going.

New York Giants @ Washington
Gave this pick out last night on Twitter, road teams were 0-3 but I forgot to incorporate the inevitable "Kirk Cousins hype train flying off the tracks" potential.  0-1 to start the week hopefully I can recover.
Winner: Washington (WRONG!!!!! Thanks Kirk)

Green Bay @ Chicago
If the Packers can't get the running game going against this Chicago D I don't know who they will be able to get going against.  This one's at Chicago, but the Bears are on a short week.  Rodgers I have a six letter word for you: S-T-U-P-I-D as in don't make me look stupid.
Winner: Green Bay

Detroit @ New York Jets
I said it last week with the Jets, the run defense is great, the secondary is suspect.  Coincidentally the Lions like the passing game.  And I have 0 let me be clear 0 trust in Geno Smith.  Even factoring in the "Lions losing a game they shouldn't" potential I'm taking Detroit.
Winner: Detroit

Buffalo @ Houston
These two teams I really don't like the QB's.  Fun fact: EJ Manuel is actually completing a smaller percentage of his passes than Ryan Fitzpatrick this year. But Ryan Fitzpatrick looked putrid last week. Ugh I'm flipping a coin.
Winner: Buffalo

Tennessee @ Indy
The Titans have scored 17 points since putting up 26 in Week 1. That's almost Jaguars-esque. Indy should probably be 2-1 and I think they'll even the record this weekend.
Winner: Indy

Carolina @ Baltimore
Remember when Steve Smith said this: "there's gonna be blood and guts everywhere".  There's legitimate blood shed potential here. I don't put anything past Steve Smith. Dude's crazy.
Winner: Baltimore

Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh
Tampa has to play better this week right? I mean there has to be some kind of pride. (Thinking) You're right this is the Bucs we're talking about.
Winner: Pittsburgh

Miami @ Oakland
Technically a home game for Oakland, but it's in London.  The Raiders have actually not played terribly through the first 3 weeks while Miami is looking to go into "dumpster fire" mode early this year with Coach Joe Philbin refusing to name Ryan Tannehill the starter.
Winner: Oakland

Jacksonville @ San Diego
We'll get to see Bortles for his first start in a meaningful game. Problem is, he can't play defense too.
Winner: San Diego

Atlanta @ Minnesota
Teddy Ball-game gets his first start as well with Cassel out.  He was good last week in relief and Atlanta's D hasn't been stellar (I'm ignoring the Bucs game because they're barely an NFL team after last week).  But the Falcons offense is scary.
Winner: Atlanta

Philadelphia @ San Francisco
Will I continue to pick against the Eagles in hopes that I can trick the universe into reverse psychology wins? Yep I will. Plus San Fran can run the football which the Eagles have apparently forgotten how to stop this year.
Winner: Niners

New Orleans @ Dallas
Normally I pick against the Saints on the road but the good news for Brees and company is they will be playing in basically a dome.  This one could be in the 40's as neither D is great.
Winner: New Orleans

New England @ Kansas City
Is Brady still an elite QB? Hasn't looked like it so far this year.  I do like the Pats D though and KC is pretty vanilla on offense.
Winner: New England

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 10-6 
Season: 17-15

Week 3 NFL Picks

Last week had more of the usual "Everything we thought we knew about the NFL isn't actually true" games.  That said, not a terrible week of picks for yours truly.  And my pick for last night's Thursday Night Football game was correct after about 10 minutes of the first quarter of play. Side note: I'm pretty positive what the Falcons did to the Bucs last night qualifies as a crime in at least 8 states. I mean good God. Anyway we've started the week 1-0 let's get to the rest of the picks.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Already covered this but had to add this nugget. Tampa's defense was actually able to post positive points last night in some fantasy leagues. Isn't fantasy football wonderful?
Winner: Atlanta 

Green Bay @ Detroit
Questions abound in the NFC North.  Will the Packers O-Line be their downfall? Can the Lions get 14 games of good Matt Stafford the rest of the way? I could keep going and I have no idea what to make of this division right now. I remember the Thanksgiving game in Ford Field last year. So do many Packers fans. But Rodgers is back and I think that he will do just enough to get the Pack a victory.
Winner: Green Bay

Washington @ Philadelphia
The Eagles have been outscored 34-6 in the first half and outscored their opponents 58-10 in the 2nd half. Kelly's offense seems to wear teams out late in games but the Eagles are living a dangerous life digging themselves holes like that. Washington's defense is better, but I hesitate to put too much stock in last week's 10 sacks considering the opponent.  I do think their running game will be a problem for the Eagles D.  I think DeSean Jackson has a big game in his return to Philly.
Winner: Washington (Yes I'm trying to use a reverse jinx continually on the Eagles by picking against them and having them win. Don't judge me)

San Diego @ Buffalo
It's always difficult for the West Coast team to travel cross country and play the 1pm game. I like what the Bills have done so far this season.  Despite the travel I'm going to take San Diego.  Phillip Rivers continues to revitalize his career in Mike McCoy's offense.
Winner: San Diego

Dallas @ St Louis
The Cowboys were able to prove me wrong last week with a commitment to the running game.  That needs to continue this week since in two career games against the Rams Demarco Murray has run for over 400 yards. The 'Boys D should be able to stop Austin Davis.
Winner: Dallas

Houston @ New York Giants
Anybody else terrified for Eli Manning this week? JJ Watt against an offensive line that has questions all over the place? Eli might be the unluckiest guy in the league over the past couple years with the number of tipped INT's he's had.  Houston's D stops the Giants and Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't lose them the game.
Winner: Houston

Minnesota @ New Orleans
How did the Saints lose to the Browns last week? We laughed at the Bucs defense last night but statistically through two games (even including last night's 56-14 thumping) the Saints D has been worse. New Orleans has allowed an average of 446 YPG. Eww. But the plus for them is they get a Vikings team led by Matt Cassel who looked awful last week.  Brees and the offense in the Superdome outscores Cassel and Cordarrelle Patterson.
Winner: New Orleans

Tennessee @ Cincinnati
The Bengals defense might actually be better this year than it was last year with noted defensive wizard Mike Zimmer at the helm.  Giovani Bernard is a swiss army knife in the mold of a Darren Sproles. Meanwhile the Titans laid an egg after looking great week 1.  I'm taking the Bengals and The Red Rocket at home.
Winner: Cincy

Baltimore @ Cleveland
The Browns upset the Saints last week by looking competent on offense against one of the worst defenses in the league. Baltimore stomped the Steelers despite the turmoil surrounding the squad. Bernard Pierce needs to continue his strong running from last week.
Winner: Baltimore

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
In the last 6 quarters the Jags have been outscored 75-10. That is all.
Winner: Indy

Oakland @ New England
A bad Raiders team heading into Gillette to take on Belichick? Is there any way this game has under a 14 point margin of victory?
Winner: New England

San Francisco @ Arizona
The Cardinals defense (especially the secondary) is terrifying.  They're 3rd in the league against the run which means Mr. Kaepernick will have to beat them with his arm.  If he's the same guy from last week that doesn't bode well.  But the Cards look like they will be starting Drew Stanton against a very opportunistic Niners D. That won't end well.
Winner: Niners

Denver @ Seattle
We all know the story lines. Classic revenge game. The 12th man. The Legion of Boom vs. Manning and Friends. Here's what I need to know. Where are they playing? Seattle? Yep okay I'll take the Seahawks in a closer game than it was in February.
Winner: Seattle

Kansas City @ Miami
The Chiefs are 2-8 since starting last season 9-0. Miami had a dud performance after a great start in Week 1. This is a coin flip.  I'll take Miami at home.
Winner: Miami

Pittsburgh @ Carolina
The Panthers look like they're on a mission to prove me wrong for picking them as the regression team for this season.  Even without Greg Hardy they are able to put pressure on the QB.  Roethlisberger's protection hasn't been great and the D continues to look old.
Winner: Carolina

Chicago @ New York Jets
The Jets lost in the most Jets way possible last week. Having a 21-3 lead only to blow it and then have the tying TD negated by a timeout? Unbelievable. The Jets run defense is great once again (1st in NFL) and the Bears are terrible against the run (24th in NFL at 160 YPG).  But, I think the Bears with an extra day's rest for Marshall and Jeffery will find a way to get it done on the road.
Winner: Chicago

Last Week: 7-9
This Week: 1-0
Season: 8-9

Week 2 NFL Picks

Welcome to the picks post, the first one of the year (yes I was completely slacking week 1 I know).  Let's get right to the picks for this week.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
This game is just getting underway as I am typing this.  We all know the turmoil surrounding the Ravens team right now and I just don't know how that will affect them.  I know that their offense didn't look good last week in the opener and I don't know how much better it can get.
Winner: Pittsburgh

Detroit @ Carolina
I didn't like the Panthers coming into the season.  I thought the offense would regress and that the defense would too with a bad secondary.  Week 1 they looked exactly like last year's team so I could be completely wrong about this team.  But I still think they're going to take a step back and I like the Lions new look offense.
Winner: Detroit

Miami @ Buffalo
The Bills and Dolphins are both feeling good coming off wins last week.  I like Miami's pass rush and think Ryan Tannehill with a better offensive line continues to improve.  EJ Manuel still hasn't shown me that much.
Winner: Miami

Jacksonville @ Washington
I said this in my recap of last week, I think the Jags will surprise some people this year.  This week could very well be that first surprise against a bad Washington team.  I'll stick with Washington but I don't feel good about it in the least.
Winner: Washington

Dallas @ Tennessee
I fully admit this pick is probably an overreaction to Week 1. Now that that disclaimer is out of the way, the Cowboys defense actually looked better than their offense last week which is a bad sign if you're a Dallas fan. Tennessee was another team that surprised me a bit in their first game, not the win necessarily but the fashion in which they did it.  I'm going to give the Titans this one at home.
Winner: Tennessee

Arizona @ New York Giants
The Giants looked awful in Detroit on Monday. Eli Manning still seems to be struggling with the new offense and the O-line is shaky at best.  A shaky offensive line is not what you want against a team like Arizona.  The Cards start the year 2-0.
Winner: Arizona

New England @ Minnesota
Mike Zimmer already seems to be working his defensive magic in Minnesota and has plenty of playmakers to work with on offense.  Even average QB play like they got from Cassel last week will be enough to get them a few more wins than last season.  That all said, the last time the Patriots started 0-2 in a season was in 2001 the first year of Tom Brady's starting career.
Winner: New England

New Orleans @ Cleveland
Cleveland has some things I like, the defense continues to get better, rookie running back Terrence West looks like a solid starting back after 16 carries for 100 yards, and Brian Hoyer has shown by now that he's a capable quarterback. However, New Orleans offense has just too many weapons and adding Brandon Cooks (early OROY candidate) just made it even more difficult for opponents to stop.  If not for a Marques Colston fumble in OT the Saints may have started 1-0. They'll get their first win here.
Winner: New Orleans

Atlanta @ Cincinnati
This one is tough because both teams looked impressive in Week 1.  The Bengals defense didn't seem to take any steps back after losing Mike Zimmer to the Vikings and Atlanta's offense was prolific with a surgical Matt Ryan and his full complement of receivers against New Orleans. I don't feel good about this pick already because I'm waffling back and forth. Bengals at home!
Winner: Cincinnati

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay
The Rams should probably just pack it in and hope to get a franchise QB in next year's draft after cutting Sam Bradford at season's end. Shaun Hill/Austin Davis won't win you many games. The Bucs got better as the game against Carolina went on, they'll continue that momentum this week.
Winner: Tampa Bay

Seattle @ San Diego
After what we all saw Week 1 how can you pick against the defending champs? Percy Harvin adds a whole different dimension to their offense.  The Chargers had a tough loss against Arizona Monday night and it'll be an 0-2 start for Phillip Rivers and Co.
Winner: Seattle

Houston @ Oakland
One thing that Week 1 reconfirmed. JJ Watt is an absolute animal. Even with the loss of JaDeveon Clowney, the Texans defense will be fine as long as Mr. Watt is in the game. Derek Carr had a good first start but I don't think there's enough in Oakland to help him just yet.
Winner: Houston

Kansas City @ Denver
The Broncos offense picked up where it left off, the only thing that scares me with them is the lack of an ability to just run the ball to run out the clock once they have a big lead. I don't think that will matter against the Chiefs on Sunday.
Winner: Denver

New York Jets @ Green Bay
Jets fans are excited after Week 1 mainly because the Patriots are in last place currently.  The ground game was also impressive.  That bodes ill for a Green Bay team that was shredded by the run last year at times.  The Packers line also scares me, but I have to think at home in Lambeau they find a way to get it done.
Winner: Green Bay

Chicago @ San Francisco
Talking with a Bears friend of mine after the Bills game, it wasn't even a question, "Well that's an 0-2 start to the season." At first I thought it was one too many adult beverages and he didn't realize it was only the first game, then I saw the 49ers on the schedule. Even worse for Chicago it's on the road in the Niners new stadium.  I have to agree with my buddy here.
Winner: San Francisco

Philadelphia @ Indianapolis
The Eagles allowed 17 points in the 1st half to Jacksonville last week with Chad Henne at QB and Allen Hurns as the #1 receiver. I have 0 confidence in this defense's ability to stop a team with as many weapons as Indy has for Andrew Luck.  It'll be a shootout but Luck and Indy win late.
Winner: Indianapolis

Enjoy Week 2!

NFL Week 1 Quick Thoughts on Each Result

NFL season is finally here! We've got one week in the books and already some of us are freaking out about our favorite teams and bemoaning a loss saying they won't win a game all season.  Others have the feeling of invincibility.  We all know it's way too early to feel like this but that's what football season does to us.  Each week I'll recap each match-up with my quick thoughts after watching the games and later in the season start to give a panic meter of where I think fans should be with their team.  Enjoy!

Green Bay @ Seattle
Seattle is a legitimate repeat contender.  The scary thing is the offense, if Percy Harvin can stay healthy (that's an awfully big if) is going to be more explosive and put up more points early which could lead opponents to have to try and pass their way out of a hole......that's terrifying.  As for Green Bay, losing on the road to the Seahawks is hardly a bad loss but the worrisome proposition for this team once again is injuries. Eddy Lacy is already suffering from a concussion and Bryan Bulaga has a n undisclosed knee injury. The defense was nothing to write home about in the opener either. They should be helped by the anemic Jets offense visiting this week.

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia
Coming into the year I thought the Jaguars would surprise people in some games with their defense and they certainly caught the Eagles off guard in the 1st half.  The Jags have some good pieces and seem to be trending in the right direction, but they're still a couple years away.  The Eagles meanwhile, still are an enigma on defense and on offense will be tough again.  Biggest problem? The offensive line injuries. Already Philly is missing replacement tackle Allen Barbre and G Evan Mathis with varying injuries.

New Orleans @ Atlanta
I have an APB out for the defenses of these two teams. If anyone finds them please give coordinators Rob Ryan & Mike Nolan a call. In all seriousness, these offenses are scary good when healthy and the supposedly shaky Falcons O-Line looked fine protecting Matt Ryan this week. The NFC South is gonna be fun this year.

Minnesota @ St Louis
With the 1st overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft the St. Louis Rams select....okay that's an over-reaction but with no viable options at QB and a suspect back end of the defense, the Rams defensive line would have to hit the opposing QB every play for this team to have a chance to do anything this year. On the Vikings side, I think Norv Turner is just cackling every night as he falls asleep thinking of ways to unleash Cordarrelle Patterson on the league.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Brian Hoyer delayed the inevitable Johnny Football sighting for one more week with his second half performance and the Steelers a team long known for its defense will have to rely on its offense to beat teams. Allowing 389 yards to a Browns offense with no Josh Gordon, a rookie running back and Brian Hoyer at the helm? I'll leave it at that.

Oakland @ New York Jets
An ugly game between two ugly looking teams.  Jets fans are more happy with New England's loss to Miami than their own team's win and that says something.  Derek Carr could be the answer or he could have had a decent day against a bad Jets secondary. Hard to tell.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore
This game was hard to watch in the first half. Both defenses are good, the Ravens offense is relying on a 35 years old Steve Smith for big plays and that's not a recipe for success.  The Bengals are the team many expect to take a step back without Mike Zimmer.  I'm not so sure. That D still looked plenty good on Sunday.

Buffalo @ Chicago
If I'm a Bears fan I'm having flashbacks to last year's awful D after this one. This was a bad loss at home to a Buffalo team that will likely end up last in the AFC East.

Washington @ Houston
Bad news for Houston? The loss of JaDeveon Clowney for 4-6 weeks. The good news? JJ Watt is terrifying as ever and DeAndre Hopkins looks like he'll make a leap forward. If Fitzpatrick can provide average quarterback play, the defense will be good enough to win 8-9 games.  As for Washington, RGIII looks awful when he's forced to stay in the pocket and the offense looked as anemic as it did last year. The NFC East is just terrible.


Tennessee @ Kansas City
Typical Andy Reid team Week 1 performance. They did nothing to help the offense this offseason let key members of the O-Line go and Reid expected the system to carry them to another good record. Without help for Jamal Charles and a regressing defense, it could be a tough year in KC. I wasn't high on the Titans mainly because Jake Locker hasn't played a full season and hasn't looked that great when he has played. After the first game of the season people are starting to buy into this team.  I'm not ready to just yet but there are some good signs.

New England @ Miami
We all assumed this would be another cakewalk to the division title for the Patriots.  We might have been wrong.  There are offensive line issues, the wide receivers don't look any better for Brady this year and a supposedly upgraded defense was gashed once again by Knowshon Moreno on Sunday.  Miami on the other hand got a good day from Ryan Tannehill who has looked fine when not forced to run for his life and the Fins D has a fearsome pass rush.  I'll be watching Miami a little more closely this week.

Carolina @ Tampa
The Panthers were picked as a regression team and Tampa as a riser.....well Week 1 tells us we were wrong.  Over the full season we could be right but the Panthers pass rush still was great (don't get me started on whether Greg Hardy should be allowed to play. Point blank he shouldn't) and Kelvin Benjamin had a great debut.  Josh McCown looked like the career back-up that he is.

San Francisco @ Dallas
The 49ers defense is good, Tony Romo looked terrible coming off back surgery (every INT he threw was his fault, there's zero excuses for him this time) and Kaepernick was fantastic.  Early gem on the Niners team? Carlos Hyde. Really like his physical style, is the perfect back to replace Frank Gore.

Indianapolis @ Denver
Stop me if this sounds familiar. The Broncos jumped out to a huge lead early only to find they couldn't run the ball to take time off the clock and allowed their opponent to come back late because of it.  That's the theme for this Broncos team and really for any Peyton Manning team.  They'll be good again but don't be surprised if they allow a few opponent comeback wins. As for Indy, I was legitimately surprised when Andrew Luck couldn't pull off the comeback. That's the kind of player he is.  I can't turn off the game no matter what the score.

New York Giants @ Detroit
The Giants are still a mess after transitioning to a new offense, the line looks bad, the receivers gave Eli no help and the pass rush looked old.  Did I miss anything? The Lions new look offense was impressive.  Still yet to be seen whether Matt Stafford will revert to his old "eyes for Calvin and Calvin only" ways later in the season.

San Diego @ Arizona
Slow 1st half, great 2nd half. Ryan Matthews seemed to have a little more pep in his step and Phillip Rivers seemed more comfortable.  Arizona is very unfortunate to play in the NFC West because that defense in any other division would easily get them into the playoffs.


That's all I've got for Week 1, I'll have Week 2 picks for you in the coming days.

2014 NFL Predictions

Alright, we're two preseason games in and have a decent idea with most teams of how the roster is going to shake out, so it's prediction time. Couple of caveats: These were done with gut-reaction win-loss through each team's schedule. So if you disagree with where I have your team keep in mind it has 0 to do with me not liking them on a fan basis.  95% of the time if a team had the better QB in my mind then that's who I took to win that game. These are obviously subject to change based on injuries over the next two weeks. (On that note I've seriously considered dropping Arizona 1 win after Darnell Dockett's injury last night because that's a huge loss.) Enjoy and feel free to criticize. 

NFC East                                                    AFC East                              

Eagles 10-6                                                 Patriots 12-4

Giants 7-9                                                   Jets 6-10

Cowboys 6-10                                            Dolphins 5-11

Redskins 6-10                                             Bills 5-11 

NFC North                                                  AFC North

Packers 12-4                                               Steelers 10-6

Bears   9-7                                                   Ravens 10-6

Lions 8-8                                                     Bengals 9-7                                              

Vikings 4-12                                                Browns 5-11

NFC South                                                  AFC South

Saints 11-5                                                  Colts 14-2

Falcons 10-6                                               Texans 5-11

Bucs 6-10                                                    Jaguars 5-11

Panthers 6-10                                              Titans 2-14

NFC West                                                    AFC West

Seahawks 12-4                                            Broncos 13-3

49ers 11-5                                                   Chiefs 10-6

Cardinals 9-7                                               Chargers 9-7

Rams 7-9                                                     Raiders 2-14

  

NFC Playoff Picture                                  AFC Playoff Picture

1)    Packers                                            1)    Colts

2)    Seahawks                                        2)    Broncos

3)    Saints                                              3)    Patriots

4)    Eagles                                             4)    Steelers

5)    49ers                                               5)    Ravens

6)    Falcons                                           6)    Chiefs